Today we heard the greenhouse gas emissions had risen by 5.9% in 2010. The world is on track for an 11 degree F rise in temperature and this came from the normally conservative Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency. He had quite recently stated "We need to leave oil before it leaves us." Something will have to happen quickly or else it will become completely irreversible.
Meanwhile our Treasury has of course stated that it has to revise the preelection forecast for economic growth, which, as I pointed out before, was predicated on three inaccurate assumptions. As I was gardening today I wondered how they managed to get it SO WRONG. Anyone with a brain who was following the developments in the Eurogeddon crisis could see there would be no smooth resolution of the debt crisis there. You can't solve debt with more debt, it just puts off the day of reckoning. And they assumed the price of West Texas oil would not go beyond $93 a barrel by 2016. Well I looked at the trend of that and it has already been beyond $93 but has dropped back. It is the lowest of the three types of oil quoted in our paper every day. On 2 Dec it was $100 a barrel and Dubai, which is the oil we rely on, was $106. As for growth of our trading partners, forget it. I don't know why we pay these Treasury officials so highly if they are so stupid.
This week five people from Transition Town Lower Hutt put out a warning on the Euro crisis and suggested planning for a crisis by having a store of food, money and water. Sensible people all of them. Robin Westenra does a wonderful blog.
But good news. Today we heard from two people in Nelson who want to start our first branch there so we put them in touch with each other! And some really good people have now joined including a well respected environmental economist.
I received a letter back from the Minister of Defence last Friday saying no they had not received any information on the security implications if ur oil supply is disrupted. He referred me to the Defence White Paper 2010 on www.defence.govt.nz. I haven't had time to read it all, but once again I despair if our Minister of Defence and his officials don't read the military reports put out in Germany and in US on the implications of oil supply for defence. Maybe there is a frustrated official somewhere in the Ministry of Defence. A job for someone?
So we await the Merkosy solution to the Europe debt issue
Reduce oil dependence for National Security, says candidate
8 Nov, 2011
The New Economics Party has sent in an Official Information request to the Minister of Defence to ask him to release relevant military reports advising us to reduce oil use for security reasons. The candidate for Wellington Central, Laurence Boomert, said have now been major military reports on oil in both Germany and USA.
A report was released a week ago to Senate by a prestigious Military Advisory Board In Virginia, USA. The report for CNA (cna.org/news/releases/
) calls for a 30 percent reduction in US oil use over ten years to reduce ‘grave national security risks.’
Boomert said the report advised that even a small interruption of the daily oil supply impacts our nation’s economic engine, but a sustained disruption would alter every aspect of our lives - from food costs and distribution to what or if we eat, to manufacturing goods and services to freedom of movement.
“USA get their oil through the same shipping routes as we do – through the Strait of Hormuz. They have analysed what would happen in the event of a complete shutdown of a strategic chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, the international passageway for 33 percent of the world’s seaborne oil shipments.”
“If Iran pre-empted an attack on their nuclear plants by shutting off oil supply lines, New Zealand would be affected too”, said Boomert. The report calls for immediate, swift and aggressive action over the next decade to achieve the 30 percent reduction in U.S. oil consumption.
He said oil shocks are immediate and far-reaching, but at today’s level of consumption, a sustained disruption would be devastating. Worldwide demand for oil is increasing at an alarming rate.”
The report calls on national leaders to increase efficiency, diversify supply sources, develop alternatives and develop a national, cogent, dedicated and sustained energy roadmap that rises above partisan politics.
Boomert has previously worked on regional energy descent plans with Transition Towns and, as a Living Economies trustee, recently co-published Fleeing Vesuvius a comprehensive handbook for contingency planning in the face of energy, economic and environmental shocks to our system.
His party the New Economics Party has an oil reduction plan as part of its manifesto (http://neweconomics.net.nz
) calling for a 4-6% per annum reduction plan for this country.
The German report said that by 2014 increasing prices of oil due to decline in supply would bring an end to our growth- based economic model, leading to widespread social unrest.
“We have entered treacherous waters but there is no one steering our ship”, laments Boomert
For further comment phone Laurence Boomert 03 525 8229 or 027 258 8807