The energy return cliff and the end of growth

When we first started talking about peak oil (I heard about in 2004) we were worried about the price of oil going over $100 a barrel.

One of my sisters said “They will find something” and heard a radio item about shale gas so she was happy. Another sister dismissed it as a plot by the left. She and her husband laughed about my concern.

images-2Then we had the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and all got busy worrying about housing bubbles, derivatives, debt bubbles, too big to fail banks and bailouts. This is all important stuff. The price of oil declined as the global economy declined and now keeps repeating these waves. Affordability oil became the issue.

In 2012 that same brother in law commented that my worry about oil was unfounded as the oil price hadn’t gone up as much as forecast and “they were always finding something”.

Now I realise what is happening and there is no better little book to explain it than the one former Green Party leader Jeanette Fitzsimons recommended in a recent talk run by the local Quakers. The book that blew her mind was The Perfect Storm – Energy, Finance and the End of Growth by Tim Morgan, Global Head of Research at finance broker Tullett Prebon. It is freely downloadable at http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf. I have printed it off and had it bound.

imagesMorgan says: There are four factors bringing down the curtain on growth. The economy as we know it is facing a lethal confluence of four critical factors – the fall-out from the biggest debt bubble in history; a disastrous experiment with globalisation; the massaging of data to the point where economic trends are obscured; and, most important of all, the approach of an energy returns cliff-edge.

When oil bubbled from the ground in Saudi Arabia a century ago, only one barrel of oil was required to extract 100 barrels of oil. The energy return on energy invested (EROEI) was 100:1. But for tar sands it is 20:1, North Sea oil today 5:1, shale oil 5:1 or less and biofuels 3:1. He says below an EROEI of 15 the profitability falls off a cliff. For decades EROEIs are declining. Few discoveries today offer much more than 10:1. So as time passes economies are spending a larger percentage on energy. At the household level when petrol and power costs rise we have less and less for other essentials. A nasty little graph  of oil’s dying EROEI is shown at http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/eroei-estimates-for-shale-oil/

The economy is a surplus energy equation not a monetary one. Too much energy has to be reinvested into energy extraction and too little energy is left for the essentials of food, government services, housing and investment.

The interesting thing is that Tim Morgan works for Tullett Prebon. It is the messenger which is unusual saying all these things. It isn’t Richard Heinberg or some sandal wearing, folk dancing greenie. In a way Tullett Prebon seems to be taking over where Matt Simmonds left off.

I think the most scary thing in his whole book is the graph of the energy returns cliff. While we blithely go into debt to build motorways and while we waive civil rights to protest at sea about deep sea oil drilling, it must be worthwhile paying attention to what this energy firm is saying.

 

New Zealand’s emergency oil is actually a piece of paper in Japan

bplge0105We have received a letter from the Minister of Energy in reply. At a Transition Town Otaki meeting, a speaker from the Otaki Clean Tech Centre told us that our emergency oil is kept in the form of a contract in Japan.So I wrote to the Minister to get this clarified and confirmed. Here is his letter of confirmation. I guess it is time I wrote again (or someone else did) to clarify this further.

19 March, 2013

Deirdre Kent

New Economics Party

Dear Ms Kent

Thank you for your email dated 28 Feb 2013 regarding New Zealand’s “strategic oil reserve”.

As a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA) New Zealand has a treaty obligation to contribute to global oil security by maintaining oil stockholding equivalent to 90 days of net imports. Commercial inventories held by oil companies in New Zealand contribute to part of the IEA obligation. New Zealand meets the remainder of the obligation by entering into “ticket contracts” with companies in other IEA countries.

UnknownTickets are an option, in return for an annual fee, to purchase specified quantities of stock at market prices in the event of an IEA-declared oil supply emergency. Tickets are backed by government-to-government agreements that specify that the host government will not impede the release of stock in an emergency. New Zealand’s ticket contract stockholding is our closest equivalent to a “strategic oil reserve”. For the period 1 January 2012 to 31 March 2013, New Zealand held ticket contracts for 55,780 tonnes of crude oil in Japan.

For further information on New Zealand’s IEA obligation I refer you to the website of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment: http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/international-relationships/international-energy-agency/international-energy-programme.

Yours sincerely

Hon Simon Bridges

Minister of Energy and Resources.

Financial collapse or six degrees global warming. Take your pick

Brilliant author, journalist and former economics reporter Will Hutton of the Guardian cuts to the chase. He has just written a column http://tinyurl.com/d27flrq which is headed ”Burn our planet or face financial meltdown. Not much of a choice.”

That headline should get our attention. In it he says

A new report, Unburnable Carbon 2013, showed that stock markets worldwide are cumulatively valuing coal, oil and energy companies’ huge reserves of fossil fuels as if they will all be burned, even though, at best, only 40% could ever be used if the world is to cap the increase in global temperatures by 2C this century. Further, in 2012, the top 200 energy companies spent $674bn on finding new reserves, reinforcing the collective absurdity. In other words, there is either a carbon bubble with investors and companies wildly over-speculating on the value of owning fuel reserves that can never be burned, or nobody believes there is the remotest chance that the world will stick to the limits on fossil fuel use congruent with containing global warming.

My husband has just been reading Richard Heinberg’s book The End of Growth and is now reading The Ecotechnic Future.  If I weren’t so obsessed with learning how to use twitter to advantage I would read them too, as he regularly tells me to do. The End of Growth proposes a startling diagnosis: humanity has reached a fundamental turning point in our economic history. The expansionary trajectory of industrial civilization is colliding with non-negotiable natural limits.

I see that Jeanette Fitzsimons, former Green Party Co-leader, is speaking in Wellington on May 14th on the same topic as Heinberg and Hutton. That is the issue of the times. It is wonderful Jeanette has the time to read and think since leaving Parliament.

5-majors-total-oil-output-by-MATTHIEU-AUZANNEAU-blog-LE-MONDE-enI came upon the Guardian article with the above headline through twitter and also, through twitter, have seen the graph above of the 25.8% decline in oil production since 2004 (thanks Southern Limits for that). Every major oil company’s production has declined including BP, Total, Chevron, Shell and Exxon.

Recently I have been waking confused in the night with a dream about too much happening and I believe it might be caused from the relentless feast of information streaming in from the internet. It is so much to take in and I wonder sometimes where it is getting me.

That is why I am pausing and writing something about where I am.

The climate sceptic Lord Monckton came to New Zealand lately attracting big audiences of those who would rather not believe the bad news. I discovered a Waipara truffle grower Gareth Renowden who has patiently rebutted his Radio New Zealand Nights interview fact by fact. Have a look at Gareth’s website http://hot-topic.co.nz/monckton-misfires-on-radio-new-zealand-a-bakers-dozen-of-errors-and-deception/.

We had old friends from Auckland visit the other day. They told us the are concerned about climate change and worry for their grandchildren. The debate on power prices will come and go, the government might change next year, bombs will go off in crowded Boston streets and explosions in factories in Waco. There might be a big earthquake in China, but the biggest challenge that we humans face is the rapid changing of the climate. We ourselves have had record droughts in summer and the downpours in the Bay of Plenty and Nelson will come more often. And in America the hurricane season is coming. Sandy last year. Will they get a year off from extreme weather events?

Last year’s visiting academic Guy McPherson gave us a powerpoint featuring a series of worsening official reports, and simply concluded that financial collapse is the only way to stop climate change. Scary stuff.

So when the Guardian headlines Will Hutton’s options of a burning planet or a financial collapse we need to choose between our pension funds and our grandchildren. Financial collapse is the only way to save life on the precious blue planet.

My twitter account is@deirdrekent