Category Archives: blog

Official report on Oil Prices and Transport Sector Resilience suppressed by Brownlee and Joyce

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Yes we have had an official Government report called Oil Prices and Transport Sector Resilience in Nov 2009. This unsigned report had to be ferreted out by the wonderful Thames-based Dennis Tegg, who blogs so responsibly on the topic of peak oil. http://oilshockhorrorprobe.blogspot.co.nz/2011/08/new-zealand-at-greater-risk-from-oil.html. Our unique vulnerability on many fronts is described in the report. Gerry Brownlee and Steven Joyce apparently don’t believe an informed public is going to be useful for their oil friendly and lignite friendly agendas! The road transport lobby is no doubt also doing some effective lobbying to bend their ears.

There is another report, the one written by Clint Smith for the Parliamentary Library in Oct 2010. http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/4/6/a/00PLEco10041-The-next-oil-shock.htm and to date is still on their website. It is excellent.

And of course there is a report commissioned by NZ Transport Authority from 2008 which was never given much airtime. It was 148 pages long.

And during January Australia suppressed its long and comprehensive report on peak oil too.

The Minister of Defence is also turning a deaf ear to military reports overseas and neglecting to commission a report for our country’s security. Like the others he has his head firmly in the sand. When a US CNA Military Advisory Board Report on peak oil came out last year, calling for a 30 percent reduction in US oil use over ten years to reduce “grave national security risks”,  I wrote to our Minister of Defence, Wayne Mapp, to find out whether he had seen it and asking under the Official Information Act for copies of all reports on oil, and the implications for security that he had received. He replied that he hadn’t.

No wonder we have seen all this rush for deep sea oil exploration and lignite production in Southland. Tag Oil in early January spoke of the potential to build thousands of oil wells in the largely untouched region of New Zealand, and said that New Zealand could become the Texas of the South. This was repeated by MPs and Ministers. The dangerous and resource intensive practice of fracking continues. So widespread is the local concern, even the Christchurch City Council has asked for a moratorium on fracking.

 

 

We need a property lawyer’s advice on Location Value Covenants

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We are starting to make progress on this but as yet we await a legal opinion. What we are proposing is a covenant within a contract and the covenant we propose is unusual. I am determined to progress with this challenge. If manage to get a workable scheme, it will deal a deadly blow to the growing private debt and start to invigorate local economies.

The key is getting a legal beaver, an expert in property law, to look at this. I have asked a university lecturer for an appointment, but there is no reply yet.

Meanwhile the discussion continues. I am phoning all members of the party one by one and as they gradually get the drift of what is proposed, there will be more people to help with this process. It is just so worth getting it right before we go public on it.

There are so many issues in the general political arena where we would like to participate, but meanwhile we need to build our party. I think we should also start to make appropriate public comments in the media.

We now have an ongoing Skype chat where we can discuss the Location Value Covenant proposal. Adrian Wrigley from UK is there to answer questions, as he is the originator of the idea. It is amazing how deeply engrained our beliefs are on property. We expect our car to decline in value over 10 years, our computer to decline over 5 years, and our house to rise in value forever!

Location Value Covenants – joining land tax reform to monetary reform and solving lots of problems at once.

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You will have been wondering what we are up to.

Well remember I said we were working with Adrian Wrigley and Robin Smith from a Cambridge think tank? This has continued until I understand what their proposal is and what are the possible objections to what I think is exciting new policy. I have been talking to many members of the party about my enthusiasm for this, because it overcomes all sorts of objections to introducing land tax.

Adrian is the brains behind the Location Value Covenant idea and I have adapted it for Rates Vouchers issued by a local authority. Basically the national version of it is this:

People with a mortgage go to government and bargain. They say we will covenant our property to pay a substantial sum to you if you give us a Treasury Note to the value of the current mortgage (or a lesser amount). The amount settled between them is the sum of what they were paying annually in mortgage plus what they were paying in rates, minus 10-15%. When the deal is done, the government is the recipient of a high sum linked by a covenant to that property. Their revenue increases. The property owners take this Treasury Note (or an electronic version of it) to the bank to pay off their mortgage. 60% of our total mortgage bill is in fixed interest so has no penalty.

Their property now carries a financial burden, so as a result its value drops, but the home owners equity doesn’t. Note above it is Treasury Notes not Reserve Bank notes. Why? Because the Reserve Bank, like other central banks, is too linked to Wall Street and the commercial banks of the world. Treasury is the Government department which accepts taxes. A Treasury Note is something valid for the payment of taxes.

So government is soon gathering enough revenue to pay a citizens dividend and then will be able to drop GST, income tax and company tax. Whereas before the banks had hold of our citizens through mortgages, they are left out in the cold. The Dominion Post put the value of current mortgages recently at $173 billion. This will gradually reduce.

 

Then the local authority version is this: (another paper)

Would be property purchasers are short of $200,000 for buying a house they want. Instead of going to the bank they go to the local authority and say “We would pay $x a year for mortgage and $y for rates. How about we add those two together, drop it a bit and I agree to pay you that amount regularly and this is written into a covenant on our property title? Would you then give me a note for $200,000 in Rates Vouchers?” The council says that sounds like a good deal and then the purchasers go to the vendor and say “I can pay you in Rates Vouchers for some of this property.” They answer
“What would we do with that?” “Well you could buy a house in this district and pay for it with that because they are valid for the payment of rates.”

This would work as long as the vendor wanted to buy in the area. If they bought using rates vouchers as part payment and this went down the chain till they struck a vendor who just wanted to spend the money in the council area. The Council would help by persuading some of the bigger local businesses to accept part payment in Rates Vouchers. All local tradespeople could accept part payment, and of course they could save their precious national dollars for paying GST and income tax. Perhaps there could be an incentive for circulation built in to the local currency so it would circulate fast, doing good all the way.

The payments are linked not to inflation but to an land value index worked out for the general area. For instance in Chch after earthquakes if the land value in a big area dropped by 50% the payments would drop 50%. Generally land values are less variable than interest rates.

Sooner or later the Government would see that several local authority areas are thriving economically. Unemployment is starting to drop and business confidence is rising. Then local authorities could tell them they could do it themselves you know. Use Treasury Notes to relieve current mortgage holders.

In this way if it came in at local authority level first, the regions would thrive and their economies would move towards using local materials, and local labour and its home prices would drop dramatically. The trend is towards sustainability (a word I rarely use these days but I can’t help myself here, because it isn’t just fashionable rhetoric, it is true!). When government started to reduce income tax, GST and company tax, the people’s purchasing power greatly increases. Take a person aged 40. If you capitalised the value of their future labour it would be much bigger than the capital in their home. Prices would drop without income tax or GST or interest on money (there is less bank created money in the system after it has been operating for a while).

I am inviting New Economics Party enthusiasts to view these papers. Just let me know by email or see me on Facebook or twitter or google +. There is so much to discuss. Everyone has different ideas to raise, but we are making headway.

We are working to combine our land tax policy with our monetary reform policy in a new way

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During the holiday season I have been talking on email and skype and phone to various people round the world and in New Zealand. One of our challenges will be to get sufficient government revenue and introducing an adequate level of land taxes is a political challenge of immense proportions. Many are implacably opposed to land taxes, although they see the importance of the type of monetary reform we propose on this site.

It seemed to me always that those involved in the Georgist movement for land value taxes have thought they had all the answers, while those involved in monetary reform thought they had all the answers. It was in 1996 that I visited the New Economics Foundation in London and had started to understand the money issue, and during that time also spent time at the Henry George Foundation or whatever it is called in London. A few years later I noticed that Margrit Kennedy, the author of Interest and Inflation Proof Money, also had the beliefs that the two reforms should come at the same time, otherwise there are problems.

I found in 2005 when I was writing my book, that the man involved with promotion of Land Value Taxes in NZ, believed there was nothing wrong with the money system and any reform to it would be terribly damaging. So I couldn’t communicate with him. I was also aware that promoting an adequate land tax would be fraught with political trouble, so I was motivated to find fellow travellers internationally and see if they had any solutions or suggestions. Land tax has to have exemptions and there are anomalies, opposition. Scottish Greens have got it through, but only as far as local authorities.

In my search for these potential colleagues I discovered that the LibDems in UK had a subgroup called ALTER and Chairman Dr Tony Vickers had written an excellent paper on the political strategies needed to introduce land value taxes (LVT). I emailed him and he replied to me, copying in his executive in the process. So it was wonderful to discover Robin Smith in London and his colleague Adrian Wrigley in Brittany and talk with them about their proposal for what they call a Location Value Covenant.

I was also alerted just before Christmas to an email to many leading figures in the international Georgist movement. It suggested there was heresy in the ranks and people should stick to the Georgist dogma, (yes it used the words heresy and dogma.) This flushed out more people, from US particularly and from the Occupy movement who were convinced on both issues so I started an ongoing skype chat (no audio, but easier to work with than emails) with those people. We paused for breath every now and then while we had one-to-one skype chats or small audio groups as we came to understand what they were talking about.

I can’t pretend we have completely arrived at a solution, because we are still in the process of collaborating on a document with the new proposal and what it can do. But I can say it is looking at private debt, at mortgages, because it is mortgages where the two issues intersect. I can also say I am very excited and there are others round the world who are equally keyed up. It is taking a bit of time to get this to a stage where the proposal is easily understood and clear and feasible. So please be patient, and if you want to talk about it, do give me a call. (Skype callers please post a message first!) Laurence only got home recently from holiday and so far we have only had a couple of calls.

 

As Europe counts down to Friday, global temperatures set to rise further and further

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Today we heard the greenhouse gas emissions had risen by 5.9% in 2010. The world is on track for an 11 degree F rise in temperature and this came from the normally conservative Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency. He had quite recently stated We need to leave oil before it leaves us. Something will have to happen quickly or else it will become completely irreversible.

Meanwhile our Treasury has of course stated that it has to revise the preelection forecast for economic growth, which, as I pointed out before, was predicated on three inaccurate assumptions. As I was gardening today I wondered how they managed to get it SO WRONG. Anyone with a brain who was following the developments in the Eurogeddon crisis could see there would be no smooth resolution of the debt crisis there. You can’t solve debt with more debt, it just puts off the day of reckoning.  And they assumed the price of West Texas oil would not go beyond $93 a barrel by 2016. Well I looked at the trend of that and it has already been beyond $93 but has dropped back. It is the lowest of the three types of oil quoted in our paper every day. On 2 Dec it was $100 a barrel and Dubai, which is the oil we rely on, was $106. As for growth of our trading partners, forget it. I don’t know why we pay these Treasury officials so highly if they are so stupid.

This week five people from Transition Town Lower Hutt put out a warning on the Euro crisis and suggested planning for a crisis by having a store of food, money and water. Sensible people all of them. Robin Westenra does a wonderful blog.

But good news. Today we heard from two people in Nelson who want to start our first branch there so we put them in touch with each other! And some really good people have now joined including a well respected environmental economist.

I received a letter back from the Minister of Defence last Friday saying no they had not received any information on the security implications if ur oil supply is disrupted.  He referred me to the Defence White Paper 2010  on www.defence.govt.nz. I haven’t had time to read it all, but once again I despair if our Minister of Defence and his officials don’t read the military reports put out in Germany and in US on the implications of oil supply for defence. Maybe there is a frustrated official somewhere in the Ministry of Defence. A job for someone?

 

So we await the Merkosy solution to the Europe debt issue.

 

 

Europeans should consult permaculturists not bankers

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Every educated and concerned individual on the planet appears to be puzzling over the web of debt problem in Europe.  Many instinctively know that because of our interconectedness the austerity package in Greece and the riots in Rome will be coming to a city near them soon unless this dilemma is solved. The grotesque web of debt graphic published on the BBC News website at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696 is authoritative and clear. It shows that Greece owes to France, US, UK, Germany, Portugal and Italy and does this for each country.

We first need to understand that bailout packages aren’t bailouts really  – they are just further loans. But anyone will know you can’t solve debt with more debt.  Sooner or later the crisis is going to come back and each round it gets worse. And it is rather like the poor having to borrow from loan sharks to pay their interest on their complicated hire-purchase obligations – the further they get into debt the more interest they pay.

How come so many owe so much to so many? Companies, governments and individuals have been borrowing across borders for years. Why couldn’t they rely on their own country instead?  Are there no boundaries between countries any more? Is capital to roam free across the globe in search of the best returns? Oh yes, in the current system it is. Borders mean little these days when it comes to capital flow.

So what to do? Put bankers and economists in to run Italy and Greece?

Einstein said you won’t solve the problem with the same thinking that created it. I have just read an article by a permaculture teacher on energy flows between living organisms. Instead of inviting bankers to their conference to solve the Eurozone debt dilemma, European leaders should have invited permaculturists. They would have learnt that all living systems have semi-permeable borders to control the material and energy flowing in and out. If too much energy (money) flows in the system expands and implodes. If too much energy flows out the system winds down and collapses. This is the principle of reciprocity.

There are other principles but the only one I will touch on here is the idea of holarchies. This, in contrast to hierarchies, means that in Nature there are wholes within wholes within wholes. Each whole-part has its integrity and each is constantly in negotiation with other whole-parts in a dynamic dance to maintain system balance. You can read more about holarchies at http://www.jaredbhobbs.com/holarchy-the-nested-hierarchy-of-holons/  and about the principles of living systems  at http://www.lindaboothsweeney.net/thinking/principles

We will put aside the issue of the gigantic derivatives market for the moment.  Suffice to say Merkel and Sarkosy in their proposal for a financial transaction tax are on the right path.

Now if we apply the holarchical organisational structure to currencies, we need currencies for small areas, currencies for larger areas and currencies for the whole globe. In an ideal system (and private corporations are still I am afraid still in charge of the issuing and controlling a country’s money supply), to ensure there is always the right amount of money the public body issuing each currency will be in a constant state of negotiation with the others. It brings complexity and resilience to a system.

So all this talk of “leaving the Euro” or “joining the Euro” might have to be replaced by other thinking. If we were to imitate Nature we would have a holarchical system. We would have currencies within currencies within currencies. So the Euro would co-exist with the drachma and the mark and the franc. Now, that will take some thinking out, but it is Nature’s model and we are part of Nature aren’t we?

There are many other critical questions like the ridiculous and unfair system where the global currency is effectively still the US dollar and the as yet unquestioned usurious money creation system that allowed all this compounding interest to take place. But let’s leave that for another time.  Just get in the permaculturists!

European debt crisis and oil affordability

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Well it looks as though it wouldn’t be much fun being the next Prime Minister of either Greece or Italy right now. It is a poisoned chalice. Who wants to introduce austerity measures and remain electable? Any concerned citizen can see what is coming for New Zealand when our trading partners are in this sort of trouble.

Richard Douthwaite, the green economist from Ireland, has written the most amazing chapter in FEASTA’s book Fleeing Vesuvius. He explains the connection between declining oil supplies and the trend of rich countries to run deficits. Taking Ireland as an example, he lists the cost of mineral fuel imports, the value of exports and then works out the fuel cost as a percentage of export earnings. It rose from 2.4% in 2001 to 7.6% in 2008. Exports are the only means by which the country can earn the money it needs to pay the interest on its overseas borrowings.

He explains that a country that runs a deficit on its trade in goods and services for several years will find that its firms and people get heavily in debt because a dense web of debt has to be created within that country to get the purchasing power, lost as a result of the deficit, back into everyone’s hands.

After a careful explanation, one of his conclusions is that it is dangerous and destabilising for any country, firm or individual to borrow overseas and net capital movements between countries should be prohibited. This is rather startling, but when you think about it foreign capital creates problems when it enters a country and when it leaves the country. When it comes in it boosts the exchange rate, thus hurting firms producing for the home market by making imports cheaper. It also hurts the exporters, reducing their overseas earnings when they convert them into national currency. As a result, when the loan has to be repaid, the country is in a weaker position to do so than it was when it took the loan on.  And managing borders obeys one of the laws of Nature.

The late Rod Donald, former co-leader of the Greens, used to go on and on about the balance of payments in New Zealand and I can see why. Both the National Party and the Labour Party seem to be taking our country into more and more debt. We have borrowed around $40 billion in the last three years.

Someone should work out our trend over the last few years. We need to find a list of the fuel cost as a percentage of export earnings and the ratio of total external debt to exports.

 

If not me then who? A personal reflection

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If not me then who?

I’ve been thinking about why this project started. What on earth would motivate a woman of 73 to start a new political party?  Shouldn’t I just be enjoying life at that age, playing bridge, knitting for my grandchildren and travelling. During the winter I had had a Skype call from Richard Sanders, an ecological economist in Brisbane. He was worried. His concern was that things aren’t getting any better and that Transition Towns won’t solve everything. He said: “Even if your town becomes self sufficient in food and energy, what are you going to do when the raiders come over the hill?” We talked and together decided that until we are all free, no-one is free. Although in transition towns we have traditionally said to politicians: “A pox on all your houses, we will take leadership here locally to prepare for life here after peak oil”, I have realised that national policies and international policies are just as vital as constructive local action for resilience.

If one is sick we are all sick, if one is poor we are all poor

I was in a classical music concert in Waikanae on 20th August, a Sunday afternoon, and dreaming away happily. I had nearly completed a nine-week e-course on evolutionary spirituality and was contemplating my future from the point of view of my evolutionary impulse, defined in the course as ‘the part of me that wants to make the world better’. We had all been mulling over the vexed question of our life’s work in the world. Since the phone call from Richard Sanders I had been wondering whether I wanted to stay working for my local transition town group and local timebank or get into something national? For me it was time to move back into national issues. What would I do? A few projects came to mind.

So on the way home from the concert it became clearer. When my husband left the car to buy some fish I sent the following text to Laurence Boomert:  “Sounds a weird question but I just sat in a concert thinking if I could vote in the coming election or not. I wondered about the possibility of a Collapse Party.”  Back came the text:  “Have written a draft manifesto and was thinking of standing for Wellington Central.”  So it was all on.

During the next few weeks we brainstormed on names, started working seriously on a manifesto and floated the idea among friends and colleagues. Soon it came clear people would rather it was just a pressure group. The Green Party members wanted to help but couldn’t if we were to be a party. Tricky. So for a while we called it a Working Party on New Economics in case we dirtied our hands with politics.  Maybe the thought was “Politics is a dirty activity only for liars”?

If we want a world without babies we should just go on – business as usual

At one stage we thought if we wrote policy and drew attention to it, then parties could all help themselves and adopt it. But of course they won’t. How naïve! Then somehow, I can’t remember how or why, we switched right back, and jumped in. It was back to a political party and we ended up with quite a conventional name.

So the idea of a political party had surfaced for months, but was quickly dismissed as stupid. Yes I had played leadership roles before, but a political party? That is different. And back came the answer from the course “If not me, then who?” Well I had written a book on new economics, or at least the money side of it, and I had once been a city councillor, I had been a professional campaigner (for ASH in the 1980s) and had stood for the Values Party in 1975 and dabbled in the Green Party and the Alliance from time to time, even stood for local bodies as a Green candidate twice.

But there are all sorts of reasons why it shouldn’t be me. I have a husband of 86 and we don’t travel far from home. We have a big garden and home to care for. I had eczema very badly last year and could hardly walk for the splits on my feet. But it is under control now. I have had heart trouble. But I have just had two cataracts replaced and now I can see without glasses, so that no longer is an excuse. Those are my limitations.

But something happened inside me and I just jumped in. I have written most of this website, with suggestions and short pieces from others, and it is just a draft to discuss at our first get together in Turangi, 14 April. Because we have so little time to solve these Very Big Problems I have shamelessly cut and pasted from all sorts of sources, so if you recognise something as yours please take it as a compliment. Thank you for your contribution. I have no aspirations right now to be in Parliament, but will do whatever I can to advance the policies in any way you want me to.

Many of you will be able to contribute your specialist knowledge. Mine is only one glimpse of the truth. To create a new economy on a war-like footing needs a whole army of highly motivated pioneers. We need those with knowledge on banking, investment, new business models, cooperatives, credit unions, new models of ownership for a start. We need those who have worked in economic think tanks, those who have worked in Treasury, the Reserve Bank, or those who have traded in derivatives. We need those who know about climate change, those who campaign against free trade. We need those who have no particular knowledge on economics but just want to help somehow. Is this you?

One theory is that there are four general types of people required to be an effective group. We need conscientious people who just want to help, to be given clear instructions. We need directors who work out who will do what and organise it to be done. We need visionaries who can see the rocks ahead. We need carers, those whose role is to care for others in the party.

If you are one of these people can you please ask yourself the question “If not me, then who?”

Environmental campaigner Bill McKibben has written:

“We definitely need art and music and disciplined, nonviolent but very real anger. Most, we need to tell the truth, resolutely and constantly. Fossil fuel is wrecking the one earth we’ve got. It’s not going to go away because we ask politely. If we want a world that works, we’re going to have to raise our voices.”

So stop waiting for someone else to fix the economic system that is killing our planet. There is no one else. It is you and it is me. If you want to raise your voice, go to Get Involved on the menu now and jump in! There is nothing to be lost and Life to be gained.

Deirdre

 

ANZ records $1billion dollar profit from New Zealand

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ANZ Auckland. None of the directors lives in New Zealand

Not a single director of ANZ is a New Zealander. Today it was announced that ANZ made  $1 billion profit and of course it was sent to Australia.

So looking at their website we find their board comprises seven men and one woman. Two live in Sydney, four in Melbourne, one has homes in both Sydney and New York and one lives in Singapore. They have backgrounds in law, accountancy and one was an ex Reserve Bank of Australia Governor. No surprises there. And of course they are on the boards of other companies like CocaCola and one was an advisor to Goldmann Sachs.

Bernard Hickey was on Closeup TVNZ tonight explaining how their margins have widened. People are paying higher mortgages and investors are getting lower returns. But this isn’t all. A look at their website shows they are dealing in derivatives like spots, options and forwards. Then there are spot minors, forward majors etc. All sorts of “financial instruments”  that not even bankers understand themselves sometimes. This calls for a financial transaction tax.

And of course there is the small matter of fractional reserve banking and the fact that private banks create and control the money supply. No wonder their buildings are the biggest in each city. No wonder they make record profits when the country is in a recession.

Our policy is that “We would require corporations that choose to operate in more than one country to charter an independent local subsidiary in our country with majority ownership here.”

The TV item said that 95% of profits from our banks now go overseas. How can we maintain any national integrity when we are controlled by overseas owned banks? This issue must be a priority of any self respecting government.

What are the real political issues this election?

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Well I sat through The Nation this morning on television, really had to hold myself in the seat because I was so bored. Reflections on the leaders, the campaigns really had little to offer other than saying Labour was on the front foot because they were realistic enough to tell us they would raise the pension age to 67.

So what are the real election issues? In my view they are the Greek bailout with a further loan, the Occupy Wall Street international movement, our borrowing of $300m a week so we can pretend all is well and we can maintain our lifestyle for ever, the Thailand floods and the price of food.

So why on earth would I pick those issues? I pick Occupy Wall Street because the world is waking up to the fact that our banks have been allowed to get so big and deal in such crazy sums of their exotic ‘financial instruments’ that Governments deem them too big to fail. People are waking up that the banks rule the world, particularly Goldmann Sachs, JP Morgan, Barclays and Bank of America.

Secondly I pick the Greek bailout because it is only going to last for six months and each time there is a bailout the politicians in France and Germany become less and less re-electable.  You can’t solve a debt problem with more debt. The relevance for NZ is that we are going further and further into debt with our borrowing programme and we just might end up like Greece ourselves.

I picked the Thailand floods because of the relevance for our rice prices and the critical nature of climate change in the future of our economy. Yes I am not just talking about more extreme weather events for our grandchildren to suffer, but I am talking here and now there is damage to our economy. Import costs rise every time there is a crop failure somewhere in the world. And climate change is going to affect the income we get from our agricultural exports too.

Why is the price of food so critical? Because whether or not people link it with crop failure or with rising prices of oil which affects the price of fertilisers, pesticides, agricultural practice and transportation they sure know when food prices rise. A professor at New England Complex Systems Institute Yaneer Bar-Yam is working on the relationship between food prices and political uprising and maintains the relationship is strong.

There is another issue and that is the sale of state assets. I will deal with the relationship between that and our policies in another blog entry some time soon.